The weather has become a key factor in whether Europe makes it through winter with enough natural gas.
FREMONT, CA: One of the most well-known forecasters on the continent anticipates moderate next several months as energy-strapped Europe keeps a watch of indications of how chilly it might become this winter.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union expressed growing confidence that Europe will witness milder weather than average over the coming three months. But it stated that chilly spells are likely to continue into December.
The projection is only one of many forecasts that energy dealers and governments are to determine if the continent will have enough natural gas stored up so far to last through winter without its usual supply of Russian gas. Recent warm weather conditions across Europe have kept gas demand relatively low and lower prices.
Most of the gas used in Europe to power industry and heat households normally comes from Russia. This year, Moscow's invasion of Ukraine prompted European countries to look for new energy supplies. In the meantime, Russia stopped a large portion of its shipments. Government officials only recently began implementing measures to ration gas in the event of shortages this winter.
By acquiring supplies of liquefied natural gas from nations like the United States and Qatar, governments have saved more gas than they had anticipated. The EU has filled about 95 per cent of its gas storage capacity, much above the 80 per cent objective set by the European Commission. However, a harsh winter or a problem with the gas infrastructure might drastically alter the equation.
As a result, whether the continent survives the winter pleasantly now heavily depends on the weather.
According to an analyst at Deutsche Bank Research, the physical gas supply will benefit greatly from a mild winter. One of the key causes of unpredictability for the upcoming months is temperature.
In contrast to the far more predictable one-day or one-week forecasts offered with a fair amount of precision by the world's weather services, the outlooks Copernicus published are longer-term and less certain. This was highlighted by the fact that the Copernicus outlook coincided with a seasonal outlook issued by the U.K. Meteorological Office. According to that assessment, this winter will probably be a little colder than usual.
Household use of gas in Europe has decreased by 15 per cent to 20 per cent this year compared to last year. 20 per cent less industrial use was made. Large-scale demand destruction, significant capacity reductions in industry, and decreased gas consumption by homes due to the milder weather are some of the reasons for this.
