The emergence of electric transportation is a once-in-a-century paradigm shift for the energy and transportation industries, and each year brings more potential for growth. More than 4.7M electric vehicles (EVs) are on the road in the U.S. Commercial and industrial fleets have begun deploying EVs. By 2025, more than 130 EV models will be on the road in the U.S., including SUVs, pickup trucks, and crossovers. However, tapping into the benefits of EVs can be a complicated endeavor, requiring complex and diversified expertise in rapidly evolving technology, infrastructure requirements, policy outcomes, and consumer expectations.
For more than three decades, EPRI has conducted research and development toward the decarbonization of the transportation industry. To enable a smooth transition to EVs, EPRI has co-developed, piloted, and demonstrated technology, created adoption models, and collected and analyzed real-world electric transportation data, which have identified pathways for the adoption of electric transportation. This work has encompassed the development of advising standards, the evaluation of charging applications, the analysis of energy-efficient rates, and the forecasting of demand on the electric grid.
For example, in collaboration with Seattle City Light (SCL) in 2021, EPRI examined the power requirements to electrify the city’s transportation and analyzed whether the current grid capacity could support these new loads. The in-depth analysis was essential in guiding future planning for the distribution system. The team also outlined a host of strategies to build momentum for electrification.
On another project, Dominion Energy, with EPRI, launched a 50-bus pilot to evaluate whether electric school buses could reliably complete their daily routes and whether the capacity of Dominion’s distribution grid was sufficient to handle charging. In Dominion’s service territory, EPRI’s analysis demonstrated that the feeders in the pilot could accommodate more than 50 buses each without any major modifications or upgrades. In addition to lowering greenhouse gas emissions, the initiative reduced fuel costs by 80 percent compared to traditional diesel-powered vehicles.
Electrifying the transportation industry is expected to play a substantial role in reducing emissions and will help society more quickly realize the potential economic and environmental benefits of electrification.
There are signs that electric transportation is positioned to take off. After all, the U.S. government’s goal is for 50% of all new vehicle sales to be EVs by 2030. Even before the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which includes EV and battery incentives, a survey found that auto executives believe that more than half of all new car sales will be EVs by 2030.
Despite these incentives and the progress to date, stakeholders are recognizing the pace of adoption will need to accelerate to meet decarbonization goals. Identifying the specific obstacles preventing more EV adoption starts with understanding some of the broader barriers.
In 2022, EPRI launched a root cause analysis into systemic challenges to consumer EV adoption. As part of the study, a survey found consumers were concerned about the variety and cost of available vehicles, driving range, charging availability, maintenance, and general uncertainty about the ownership experience. Although EVs are expected to reach purchase price parity with gasoline-fueled vehicles in the next few years, some consumers remain unconvinced.
Another issue is the time required to prepare the electric grid for increased loads. The load size is represented by EV charging and the pace at which these loads will be added to the grid challenges traditional utility and regulatory approaches to investment planning. It is far less about the utility’s ability to provide power and more about how long it will take and at what cost.
A renewed sense of urgency has been building to stay on pace with 2030 carbon reduction goals. Given how many different stakeholders can impact EV adoption, it became apparent that a coalition approach would yield the most effective results. In 2023, EPRI launched EVs2Scale2030
™, a three-year effort that has assembled many collaborators, including the U.S. Department of Energy, numerous electric companies, national labs, fleet operators, auto and truck manufacturers, and charging providers. By producing the specific level of data needed, this initiative aims to give utility leaders, regulators, and key stakeholders the data-backed confidence required for proactive grid investment.
Underlying all the work to bring EVs to scale is the premise that meaningful progress will continue to require collaboration across many sectors and unprecedented energy industry expertise. Electrifying the transportation industry is expected to play a substantial role in reducing emissions and will help society more quickly realize the potential economic and environmental benefits of electrification.
