Problem solving in a decarbonised whole energy future

Decarbonisation is a complex problem which needs new ways of thinking to manage the changes required to our energy system. Net zero is achieved when the amount of greenhouse gases going into the environment are balanced by those being removed. The target date for achieving the Government’s net zero target is less than thirty years away, and recent global events have sparked recognition of the importance of a faster transition.

The energy system is the backbone of modern society. To deliver on the transition to net zero whilst continuing to deliver for consumers, a whole energy system approach and strategic change is required across all fuels, including low carbon hydrogen and bioenergy.

Consumers require energy that is clean, secure, affordable, and fair. This is achievable but relies on strategic development of whole energy networks, markets, and technologies to make the most of the abundant renewable energy available in Great Britain.

To achieve a net zero economy, it is important to address each sector and develop solutions to reduce their associated greenhouse gas emissions. This allows us to reach a common net zero goal across all sectors. The power sector must be fully decarbonised, and to offset other sectors which cannot decarbonise it needs to reach a point of negative emissions.

History on change to date

We have already seen the energy system evolving as new technologies and innovations emerge, and the electricity system has decarbonised rapidly. The use of fossil fuels for power generation is declining and renewables are growing. Zero-carbon sources continue to outperform traditional fossil fuel generation and provided over 48% of the electricity used in 2022, compared to 40% from gas and coal power stations.

On 15th May 2023, the UK produced its trillionth kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity generated from renewable sources – enough to power UK homes for 12 years based on average consumption. Security of supply features more heavily in everyday conversation as the cost of energy is felt more heavily by consumers due to recent global events. The energy trilemma is still as relevant today as it ever was.

“Consumers require energy that is clean, secure, affordable, and fair. This is achievable but relies on strategic development of whole energy networks, markets, and technologies to make the most of the abundant renewable energy available in Great Britain.”

Changes to come

We often consider the trilemma in discussing how we should decarbonise. How we can get the optimum balance between the environment, affordability and security of supply. The way I consider this is how do we achieve decarbonisation to net zero whilst maintaining security of supply in a changing climate and protecting consumers and creating societal benefits. But that is much more of a mouthful than just saying balance the trilemma.

If we were to take a similar principle and apply it to how we strategically plan to deliver this, there are much more interlinking aspects (vectors) than ever before which must be considered and optimised. This venn diagram could quickly become a spider’s web. And this is a major part of the challenge we face. The complexity of problem solving in a whole energy world.

The energy system of the future will be a multi-vector whole energy system encompassing what is now the electricity and gas distribution and transmission networks, as well as a much broader energy landscape including heat, transport, consumer level energy resources and potentially other fuels such as hydrogen. The energy system will be more decentralised and digitally enabled, reliant on open data removing barriers to market entry for consumers.

Example of complexity

The transition to a deeply decarbonised, highly renewable energy system shifts us from time-based energy usage to time-based (weather dependent) power generation. Well located energy storage will be key to ensuring that power generated at times of low demand is not curtailed or wasted.

Hydrogen can be used both as a fuel and as energy storage for flexibility at times of lower energy supply. Produced via electrolysis or steam methane reforming, hydrogen's versatility spans both electricity and natural gas systems, necessitating a unified approach to networks supporting its production, transport, and storage. Strategic siting of electrolysers, factoring in electricity constraints, enables absorption of excess electricity and averting network-related curtailments. There is already a demand for hydrogen in petrochemicals, but expanding its production requires creating new markets, like fuel substitution for natural gas combustion. As production sites may not align with network limitations or demand locations, optimising benefits and costs across all sectors and developing the enabling markets needs whole system thinking.

So what is needed?

We need to work together, improve data and systems to facilitate better decision making. The time for action is now and the challenge is great on many different levels. How we all interact with energy will be a revolution for the better.